This data brief covers Florida commercial real estate transaction activity, cap rate movements, and market conditions through Q4 2025, drawing on county deed records from Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, and Orange counties, CMBS servicer remittance data from EDGAR filings, and submarket vacancy and rent indices from our data pipeline.
The Florida CRE market in Q4 2025 presented a picture of divergence: resilient industrial and multifamily fundamentals coexisting with continued office stress and selective retail softness. The data below represents transaction activity recorded in county deed filings through November 2025 plus CMBS servicer data through the October 2025 reporting cycle.
Miami-Dade Overview
Multifamily
Miami-Dade multifamily transaction activity in Q4 2025 was moderate by volume but showed sustained pricing discipline. Key submarkets showed the following conditions:
- Brickell / Downtown / Edgewater: Class A high-rise vacancy held at 4.8-6.2%, reflecting strong underlying demand from corporate relocation tenants and international household formation. Cap rates on Q4 transactions: 4.6-5.0%. Two notable trades were recorded in the Edgewater corridor above $35M, consistent with the continued institutional appetite for the urban multifamily corridor.
- Wynwood / Overtown: Class B vacancy at 6.8-8.4%, up modestly from Q3. Several boutique multifamily projects in early stabilization periods contributed to the headline vacancy figure. Cap rates on stabilized assets: 5.1-5.5%.
- South Miami-Dade (Kendall, Homestead): Workforce housing vacancy tight at 4.2-5.8%. Transaction activity dominated by private buyers and smaller funds. Cap rates 5.3-6.0%.
Operating expense headwinds — specifically property insurance premiums, which have risen 18-32% for coastal Florida multifamily since 2023 — continue to compress effective NOI for existing owners relative to underwriting models that predate the insurance cost escalation. New buyers are incorporating the higher expense load into their underwriting; existing owners on 3-5 year holds are absorbing the NOI compression.
Industrial
Miami-Dade industrial continued its structurally tight performance through Q4 2025. Vacancy for the county held at approximately 3.1-3.4%, with meaningful variation by submarket as described in our Q2 data brief. Q4 transaction activity included several owner-user acquisitions in the Medley and Hialeah submarkets, consistent with the pattern of manufacturers and distributors choosing to own rather than lease in a market where rental availability is extremely constrained.
Asking rents for Class A logistics space in Airport West and Doral reached $19-$23/SF NNN in Q4 2025, up approximately 5-6% from Q4 2024. Effective rent growth has moderated from the 12-15% annual pace of 2022-2023 but remains positive. New development deliveries in the county were limited by land constraints; the supply pipeline for 2026 is expected to add less than 1.5 million SF, well below projected annual demand.
CMBS-encumbered Miami-Dade industrial showed zero distress in the Q4 2025 servicer remittance data — all active loans current, DSCR above 1.2x across the monitored pool. Cap rates on Q4 transactions: 4.7-5.2% for Class A, 5.2-5.6% for Class B/flex.
Office
Miami-Dade office continued to bifurcate sharply in Q4 2025. Class A CBD and Brickell office with strong anchor tenancy maintained relatively stable metrics. Class B and suburban office remained under significant stress. Overall Miami-Dade office vacancy was approximately 16-19% depending on measurement methodology, with suburban office above 22% in several submarkets.
Conversion activity accelerated in Q4 2025 — five additional office-to-residential conversion projects obtained or advanced entitlements in the Miami-Dade market, collectively representing approximately 680,000 SF of office space that will exit the inventory. This conversion pipeline represents the most realistic path to vacancy normalization for Miami office, as organic demand recovery is insufficient to absorb the existing vacant inventory at current rates.
Cap rates on transacting Miami Class A office: 6.5-7.5%, reflecting pricing for distressed situations. Several transactions represented debt-to-equity exchanges or note purchases rather than arm's-length sales.
Broward County Overview
Multifamily
Broward County multifamily showed stable conditions in Q4 2025. Overall vacancy approximately 6.8%, down from 7.4% in Q4 2024 as new supply deliveries moderated. Fort Lauderdale's urban core submarkets (Las Olas, Flagler Village, Tarpon River) remained the tightest, at 5.2-6.4% vacancy. Cap rates on Q4 multifamily transactions: 5.0-5.5% for Class A, 5.4-6.0% for Class B.
Industrial
Broward industrial was active in Q4 2025, with several major lease signings in the Deerfield Beach and Pompano Beach logistics corridor. Vacancy compressed modestly to approximately 3.7-4.0%. New development under construction in Miramar and Pembroke Park expected to deliver approximately 1.8 million SF in H1 2026, which the market should absorb within 9-12 months at current absorption rates.
Palm Beach County Overview
Palm Beach County commercial real estate showed stronger-than-expected fundamentals in Q4 2025, reflecting the sustained population and wealth migration into the Boca Raton/Delray Beach/West Palm Beach corridor that has been a defining feature of Florida demographics since 2020.
Multifamily
Palm Beach County multifamily vacancy at approximately 5.8%, among the tightest in the state outside of Miami-Dade industrial equivalents. West Palm Beach CBD and Boca Raton produced several notable multifamily transactions in Q4 2025 at cap rates of 4.8-5.3% for Class A product. The Boca Raton submarket in particular has attracted institutional capital that might previously have been directed to Miami-Dade, where pricing has become more aggressive.
Office
Palm Beach County office showed split performance. CityPlace Tower and 505 S. Flagler in West Palm Beach maintained strong occupancy on the strength of financial services and professional services tenant demand. Suburban office in Boca Raton and Delray Beach faced higher vacancy as tenants migrated toward the urban core or accepted hybrid work reductions in leased space. Overall county office vacancy approximately 14.2%.
Orange County (Orlando) Overview
Multifamily
Orlando multifamily was the most supply-challenged Florida market in Q4 2025. Significant speculative delivery activity from 2022-2024 pipeline projects pushed overall Orange County multifamily vacancy to approximately 9.8% — the highest in the state's major markets. Absorption was positive but insufficient to fully offset deliveries. Cap rates on Q4 transactions: 5.4-6.0% for Class A, reflecting the supply-driven softness relative to tighter markets.
The Orlando market is expected to normalize as the delivery pipeline thins in 2026-2027. For underwriters, the current elevated vacancy should be modeled as a temporary condition requiring a stabilization ramp assumption rather than as permanent structural softness — the underlying demand drivers (tourism employment, population growth, university graduation inflow) are intact.
Industrial
Orange County industrial vacancy: approximately 5.8%, elevated relative to South Florida but below the national average for major logistics markets. The Orlando MSA's role as a distribution hub for Central Florida's tourism and residential economy provides stable demand. Cap rates on Q4 industrial transactions: 5.2-5.7%.
Statewide CMBS Distress Summary
Florida CMBS loan performance as of Q4 2025 EDGAR filings showed mixed conditions by asset type:
- Multifamily: Delinquency rate approximately 1.8%, up modestly from 1.2% a year prior, driven primarily by Orlando-area loans with elevated vacancy
- Industrial: Delinquency rate approximately 0.4%, effectively zero for practical purposes — among the lowest nationally
- Office: Delinquency rate approximately 8.4%, the highest of any asset class, with Miami-Dade suburban office and Broward suburban office both showing elevated special servicer transfer rates
- Retail: Delinquency rate approximately 3.1%, concentrated in enclosed mall and power center formats; neighborhood and grocery-anchored retail performing significantly better at approximately 1.1% delinquency
Outlook for Q1 2026
The Florida CRE market entering 2026 continues to present strong industrial and select-market multifamily opportunities with stable NOI fundamentals and constrained supply. Office remains a workout story in most markets. Palm Beach County has emerged as a secondary institutional destination for buyers priced out of Miami-Dade. Orlando multifamily requires patience through the current supply absorption window.
For underwriters, the key variable to monitor in early 2026 is property insurance premium trajectory — the Florida property insurance market remains under stress following recent storm activity, and further premium escalation would put additional pressure on coastal multifamily NOI across the state.
We will update this data brief with Q1 2026 figures as recorded deed transactions and CMBS servicer data become available in the spring cycle.
